Jump to content

ICT predicting lower tourism based on US recession


Recommended Posts

Anybody see the local news at lunch today? A representative for the ICT was predicting a lower tourist season based on the US recession.

On Monday, Australian equities lost 2.1% amid new revelations of the U.S. recession.

U.S. recessions have always caused problems for the U.K., Canada and all large exporters to the U.S.

Are North Americans who listen to the US media conglomerates, the only ones on the planet that still believe the US economy is experiencing an economic downturn?

Ignore the BS you here coming out of Washington. The politicians are ignoring the facts indicating another recession. It's an election year and that's what politicians do. They rely on "Political Blind Faith"

When exactly does and economic downturn become a full-blown recession. History has repeatedly told us but we are very good at forgetting and forgiving our elected public officials who greatly profit from the upturns and lay low during the downturns.

Civilians need to plan for reality and prepare to make business and lifestyle adjustments. We are not insulated like the politicians and their lobbying buddies. The U.S. recession will cause worldwide economic repositioning.

Moreover, the USA's recessions have always resulted in many years of recovery. The recovery periods last much longer than the downturns. Look at how long the Resolution Trust Corporation, (RTC) functioned, as the US government-owned asset management company mandated to liquidate assets of real estate and mortgage loans, as a consequence of the savings and loan crisis of the 1980's. The RTC was established in August of 1989 and was closed in December 1995.

Do any current events sound similar?

Who benefited from the Savings and Loans blindly lending money that resulted in a huge recession, lasting six years? Another generation of politicians, that's who. They eased the consumer protection laws, allowing the huge mortgage companies to bury inexperienced consumers with mortgages they could not afford.

Are you willing and able to ride out the next recession for six years?

The pending recession has increased foreign investors and international company's interest to search globally for "safe havens" in emerging economies offshore. What does that mean to the average North American civilian? It means there will be less jobs and less consumer spending which affect everyone in the USA.

Currently, some economists are predicting a dollar rally based on a US economic downturn. Deutsche Bank predicts a stronger dollar by years-end, and said, "The euro will be worth $1.30, down from its current $1.47." However, there are other predictions from large international conglomerates such as Scotiabank that stated in December, "because of the pending U.S. recession and concerns about the diversification of foreign central bank reserves, the dollar has not reached bottom yet."

How much time do we have before the US economy hits bottom? No one economist or politician ever really knows. However, prudent business people cannot afford to relax and wait for political results. History has taught us to look beyond political positioning and promises.

This recession's probability, is certainly good reason for investors and businesses to look globally for opportunities. Markets with stable, growing economies and democratic governments that welcome foreign investment become very attractive when the US economy shrinks.

If you are an investor or are still in business and need to keep making money, you need to look for your own personal solution, before the BS hits the fan.

With favorable trade agreements in place and for a multitude of other reasons, I consider myself very fortunate to be plugged into the Costa Rican economy and unplugged from the USA. Every time I hear the BS being spread throughout the world, about a short US recession, I count my blessings and treasure my simple life here in Ticolandia. Pura Vida!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anybody see the local news at lunch today? A representative for the ICT was predicting a lower tourist season based on the US recession.

 

Good post.

 

However, I find it interesting that ICT is calling for a recession in the US. There is certainly not a consensus among Economists that the US is headed for recession (though there have been many more recently pointing to increased risk of one).

 

The story that is not being told is that despite the downturn in the housing and the credit markets, the US export economy is in an absolute boom. In fact it has more than made up for the loss in GDP from housing and financials. The US is still creating new jobs and salaries are on the rise (though Dec numbers were a bit weak).

 

The press likes to focus on the negative however. Oh well.

 

Bottom line, we are a long way from determining one way or the other if the US is heading for a recession or not. Does that mean that there might not a down turn in tourism anyway, who knows? I don’t think ICT does either.

 

I remember after 9/11, Hawaii did fine. Many vacationers that were headed for Europe canceled and rebooked for Hawaii.

 

IMHO, it is not out of the question that Costa Rica could actually benefit from a US recession by capturing a piece that Hawaii business. Costa Rica is very affordable compared to Hawaii. If travelers to Hawaii are looking to save money, Costa Rica might look more attractive.

Edited by Kahuna
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree... there is no recession in the US. For that to happen, there needs to have been two quarters of negative economic growth and there has not even been one quarter thus far.

 

The ICT is fond of spreading a fairly thick layer of manure and doing a ton of finger pointing.

 

I think far more important is the ridiculous prices of hotel rooms here. It has gotten just out of hand. My wife and I like to take jaunts... weekend things. In early November, we checked out maybe 10 hotels in various areas... Santa Theresa, Malpais, Tambor, Playa Hermosa (the good one in Guanacaste) and even (GAG ME) Jaco, and I was shocked to see prices for MODERATE rooms now priced at $300 per night and UP! This was in early to mid November... NOT the high season, but low and behold, the hotels are now starting the high season a month early! Really nice rooms (deluxe) were at $400 plus! These are the exact same places we stayed at 4 years ago for $120-$150 per night.

 

I also hear from my customers that they are REALLY PO'd about having to buy passports for their kids! A family of 6 (2 + 4 kids) gets socked for about $600 in passports before they ever leave the country.

 

Restaurants in tourist areas (and elsewhere) are just stupid! We are looking at $75 to $125 per couple with NO alcohol!

 

Now couple all the above with article after article about crime against tourists in Costa Rica, the bad roads, gasoline prices (the highest in Central America at just under $5.00 per gallon or so) and the high airfares, etc?

 

No... The ITC, once again, is getting it wrong. But of course that is way better than accepting any responsibility right?

 

Methinks... very soon... the old goose is gonna dry up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.