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elviscaprice

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Everything posted by elviscaprice

  1. I would complain, but then I dropped my awhile ago when CR started all this bull. Really most folks don't need a corporation, including mom and pop.
  2. Thanks Jimvignola, Just confirms what I've been saying all along. CR central bank wants a stronger dollar but in a controlled movement. Newman remains confused over the Dollar/Colone relationship thinking CR political actions and government debt as the main influential mover but it really is the economic realities outside this sphere as interconnected with the world economic central bank policies. Yes, gov't. actions can influence a currency but in this case it is not. It's world economic policies and the CR central bank that wag this currency tail for the moment.
  3. Newman, I have come to conclude you know just enough to say something, but not a clue as to how it all works together. Currencies are a very complex derivative that are influenced by numerous factors, some more so than others in different combinations. Costa Rica and Venezuela have far different situations that influence their respective currencies. To compare the 2 is like comparing the Moon to Jupiter. Did you see the big reversal today on the bid for Dollar/Colone? Who do you think is responsible for that move? I'll give you one guess and it's not Venezuela. LOL
  4. LOL, where you getting your information? As recently as Jan. 31st., they still had 7.2 billion in foreign currency reserves. Which I am sure they are using today for Colone purchases. Hardly a Venezuela.
  5. The problem with your conspiracy theory, fpapia, is that the Dollar was being artificially held up for nearly 2 years at 500 colones. Thus the Central Bank of Costa Rica was soaking up Dollars by selling Colones to help prop up the Dollar/Colone rate. If you short the Dollar or go long the Colone six months ago and still hold your position, you thus lost 12 percent, let alone what leverage you applied. It seems obvious to me that investors are fleeing the Colone and buying Dollars or no new Colone investors are coming in with Dollars, same thing. Thus the flood of Colones on the market. But the Central Bank of CR can help alleviate that huge move or hold it back by buying back those Colone with the Dollars they took in over the past 2 years, making a profit while at it. I don't see the conspiracy, I just see complacency by the CR central bank who want a stronger Dollar and have said so all along. Of course an orderly movement is in their interest, thus I think they are in the market as we speak, in an attempt to keep the rate change from getting out of hand.
  6. Since the tax is done by percentage, it really doesn't matter what the currency used is. In theory (after Colone depreciation), if people kept importing the same amount of goods, in Dollars, then they would pay more taxes in Colones (or if in Dollars, more Colones after exchange, same thing). BUT, often time less imports are consumed because of the increased cost or goods in Colones. Thus giving a competitive edge to local production and consumption.
  7. Actually the Central Bank of Costa Rica wants the dollar to strengthen against the Colone. Be it gradual not to fast. Reason being, keep hot money from flowing into Costa Rica and causing a future disruption to the economy. To make CR's exports more competitive. Discourage import consumption. That is why the Central Bank of Costa Rica did not allow the dollar to fall under 500 Colone. It would have gone to 400 or 300 possible if not so for the intervention.
  8. Correct Mark, Interest rates are the single biggest influence on currencies and with the U.S. Federal Reserve decreasing stimulus for the foreseeable future, interest rates in the U.S. should continue to rise. Secondly this is all being done because of further economic growth in the U.S. That being said, U.S. interest rates are very influential on money flows in many small countries across the globe and any further contraction of money supply by the Federal Reserve will increase that siphon rate out of these countries. Costa Rica is no different than one of those small countries. For a couple years the Costa Rican Central Bank kept the dollar from falling any lower than 500. There was never an attempt to keep the dollar from rising. Also I've heard of some noise concerning Costa Rica penalizing foreign interests from moving dollars to Costa Rica for pure investment in Colon accounts. The combination of these events has propelled the dollar a clear 12 percent higher since the 1st of the year. I would expect further dollar increases in the months ahead, these movements take on a life of their own after awhile with people fleeing the Colon in favor of the Dollar. How far we overshoot and then settle in? Who knows. But I'm thinking well over 600 before it's over. 585 to 590 should have some resistance.
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